marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
1230 am PST Mon 23 Nov 2009
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
06z NCEP prelim surface analysis shows high pres ridging across
the offshore waters while a warm front...associated with low
pres in the NW gulfak...is located about 150 nm W of the pz5
waters. Qscat passes from 0224z and 0405z indicated winds under
25 kt over the offshore waters W/the exception of the far NW WA
waters where 30 kt winds were present.
Warm front pushes thru the pz5 waters early today followed by a
cold front with continued model support for gales ahead of the
cold front. Coverage of gales in the WA waters remains
widespread while in the or waters will be limited to the nrn
portions. Next frontal system approaches late Tue...crossing the
pz5/6 waters Wed into Thu. Here also 00z models continue to
support gales ahead of the front as it moves thru the pz5 waters
Wed.
00z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET develop low pres along the front early Thu
as it begins to push out of the pz5 waters...while moving into
the central N CA waters. However differences arise W/each model
as to the low location early thurs W/the 00z UKMET placing the
low near the WA/OR border ...the 00z ECMWF just W of the or
waters and the 00z GFS in the wrn nrn CA waters. While the other
globals dont develop the low along the front they do have a
similar placement of the front when compared to all but the 00z
ECMWF. As the low/frontal structure moves inland late thurs
winds increase W/the 00z GFS suggesting NW-ly gales developing
in the or...N and central CA waters respectively. However given
the current differences noted between the models in relation to
potential low pres development along the front will not intro
gales at this time. Will allow 30 kt Max winds to continue Thu
in the pz5 waters as stated in the previous forecast while
bumping winds in the N and central CA waters up 5 kt to 30 as
well. By day 5 high pres ridge builds over the area.
Seas...00z ww3 was within 1-2 ft of 00z ship/buoy obs with its
6hr 06z forecast continue the same trend. Will remain below ww3
Thu given I plan to remain under GFS winds...otherwise will
generally follow ww3 values for this forecast package.
.Warnings/forecast confidence...Warnings are preliminary and are
subject to change. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS
12 planet chat or by telephone.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters...
.Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale today...hi confdc. Gale
Tue ngt into Wed...MDT confdc.
.Cape Lookout to point St George...Gale today...MDT to hi
confdc. Gale Tue ngt into Wed...low to MDT confdc.
.Pz6 California waters...
.Pt St George to pt Arena...none.
.Pt Arena to pt Conception...None.
.Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.
